Here is an interesting report on the current state of affairs from Dr. Al Tuchfarber, founder of the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati from 1975 to 2004.
September 12, 2022
A Changing World
In-Brief
- The US and world a year or two from now are going to look amazingly different.
- A severe defeat for Democratic candidates in November is still in the cards notwithstanding Republican fears they have some weak candidates. Keep your powder dry until late October when we will see the last-minute trends.
- The Russians in Ukraine are suffering horribly from numerous major Ukrainian attacks. The war is at a key stage with major Ukrainian advances day by day.
- Inflation stays historically high and is likely to stay high throughout 2022 but is now beginning to moderate substantially.
- China’s economy remains in deep trouble and is stagnant or in a recession.
- Nuclear power is making a strong comeback and will be critical in solving the worldwide energy crisis.
In Depth
Our Rapidly Changing World
I come back to this “rapidly changing world” concept often, because it is true. Our countries and the whole world order are changing extremely fast, far more than most think.
I believe that the next few months and next several years will see dramatic changes that greatly favor the US and the West over authoritarian countries and ideas. Five of those dramatic changes are listed below. I have written about all of them in previous TRs but now list them together to give you a clear “big picture.”
In numerous future weeks I will address these dramatic changes explaining their causes and consequences. My personal standard for making major predictions is that the hard facts convince me that the prediction is 80 percent or more likely to be correct. That applies to each of the predictions below. These are not casual predictions on my part. I have spent thousands of hours studying each situation.
Major Predictions
- China’s four decades of rapid economic growth are ending. From this year forward and in most future years China will fall further behind US economic power. India will pass China as the #2 world-power about mid-century.
- Russia has already lost the Russian-Ukraine war and because of it will be rated as a third-tier power for the foreseeable future. The war and its aftermath will substantially diminish Russia’s world-standing and its military, economic, and political power.
- The US will dominate the 21st century economically, scientifically, militarily, culturally, and politically.
- The unnecessary hysteria over climate change and the trillions wasted subsidizing renewable energy is now dying a political death. Except for pockets in the US and Europe most of the countries of the world have already abandoned net-zero emissions as a plausible goal.
- Authoritarian woke radicalism in the US will be rejected by the voters in the 2022 and 2024 US elections.
Each week in future TRs you will find explanations and elaborations on these predictions as well as comments on their accuracy. A scattering of explanations appear today in various sections.
TUCHFARBER ELECTION PREDICTIONS
I’m still not going to change my predictions, but it is clear that the FBI raid on Trump’s home in Florida has infuriated, outraged, and motivated Republican and independent voters to turn out and vote against Ds. I am also NOT going to change my predictions because the Rs nominated some relatively weak candidates. When one party sweeps an election even some weak candidates win, and strong candidates lose.
Note that I have NOT changed my predictions for over a month because I do not believe the overall political situation has changed much.
We are now just 57 days from the November election. The real campaign has started and will peak in the last two weeks before the election.
US House – the Rs will gain a minimum of 35 seats and perhaps twice that number. The Rs will end up with a large majority in the House.
US Senate – the Rs will gain a net of three Senate seats and up to six seats. The Rs will have a minimum of a six-seat Senate majority.
Governorships – The Rs will gain a net of anywhere from 2 to 8 governorships winning up to 10 governorships now held by Democrats but losing several they now hold.
State Legislatures – The Rs will gain hundreds of state House and Senate seats.
I’ll update these predictions on a regular basis and get more specific as the election nears.
A Reminder of Factors Causing These Predictions
- In the first midterm election for a new President the President’s party loses an average of about 30 House seats.
- A Presidential approval rating of under 45% foretells a large election defeat in a midterm – Biden is now at 43%.
- When less than 32% of voters think the country is going the “right direction” the President’s party gets hammered in the next election – “right direction” is now at 23%.
- The polling question asking for which party poll respondents will vote for in upcoming House elections needs to be plus 5.0 or 6.0% for Ds for them to break even with the Rs in seats won – that metric is now at D+0.4%.
- More enthusiasm among voters of either party bodes well for that party’s election success. Last week’s YouGov poll, a D leaning poll, showed 47% of Rs more enthusiastic than usual about voting in November and just 35% of Ds more enthused.
- Dozens of polls have shown Hispanic and Asian-American Democratic voters drifting to the Republicans. No demographic or geographic group appears to be moving to the Ds in significant numbers.
Never just accept my analysis. In all cases, seek independent confirmation if any issue is vitally important to you. CHECK THE ACCURACY OF MY FACTS AND ANALYSES.
POLLS
RealClearPolitics Averages:
- Biden Approval – 43% approval and 54% disapprovals. Any approval rating below 45% is a disaster for the President’s party in the midterms.
- Direction of Country – 23% right direction and 70% wrong track – anything below 32% right direction is a disaster for the party in power.
- Ballot choice for November congressional elections – 44.1%R and 44.5% D. [The Ds need to lead by 5 points on this measure to tie the Rs for seats in the US House because D votes are concentrated in the big cities while the R votes are spread widely.]
These averages have changed little in either direction over the last month and one-half indicating very little substantive change in the political situation at this time.
Polls in individual races are frequently changing as new candidates get known by the voters. Races have shown huge leads for some incumbents while other races are closing. The key thing in predicting the correct winner will be where the close races stand about two weeks before the elections.
How is the Economy Doing?
If we are in a recession, it is a very strange one. We have full employment, solid consumer spending, and good corporate profits. But we also have tanked stock markets and crushing inflation. Severe damage has already been done to investors and tens of millions of households.
The FED and other central banks are crushing demand around the globe. They hope this move will decrease inflation, but it could also cause recessions.
- Worldwide demand for goods and services is being slammed by rising interest rates and the Ukraine war’s ravages. The decrease in demand means it is coming in line with supply for many commodities resulting in price decreases. Getting supply and demand in balance is the way to greatly decrease the ravages of high inflation.
- NEW – The economy produced 315,000 jobs in August. It is not now in recession. But growth has slowed to a crawl.
- A pattern has emerged. Economic indicators that include personal opinions from consumers or managers are falling because people are scared. The stock and bond market declines and volatility have people legitimately frightened. Consumer confidence is low but stats that measure just hard facts are strong. Indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and business inventories, which are just hard numbers with no human opinions included, are still strong. Other indicators of economic activity that are completely up-to-date weekly are still solid. We’ll watch to see if that pattern continues.
- NEW — The US has about 6 million people out of work who are looking for work. A recent report from the government showed that we had over 11 million open jobs in July, a large increase from June. That is almost two unfilled jobs for every unemployed American.
- With the country being at full employment and the ability of most households to spend, a recession this year is unlikely but possible. But high inflation is still seriously damaging many poor, working-class, and middle-middle-class families.
- NEW – Last week the Dow was up 2.7%, the S&P was up 3.6%, and the NASDAQ was up 4.1 %.
- The Biden plan to forgive up to $20,000 in student debt is inflationary and unfair to most American households. Even some Ds running for election have labelled it a bad idea.
- UPDATE – CANARY IN THE COAL MINE — Weekly unemployment claims were down markedly to 220,000 from the previous week. This is the same number of claims as right before the pandemic. An official recession is very unlikely if unemployment stays quite low. Unemployment claims are a hard indicator of the strength of the economy and are updated weekly. They can be one of the canaries in the coal mine to give us an early warning about a recession if one is on the way. There is a lot of noise out there from individual employers about layoffs or cutting back on hiring but NO major evidence yet of a widespread problem.
Until we get that, no dying canary, and probably no recession, at least in the short-run.
But we are getting very mixed signals about the direction of the economy. Have no doubt that the FED is crushing demand and hopes for a recession to curb inflation. Stay tuned…
Global Political Economics
Major Battles in Ukraine
By Al Tuchfarber and Tom Schram
For most of the summer, the battle lines in Ukraine were at a stalemate with neither side launching major attacks and neither army gaining much ground. Mid-summer, the Ukrainians began signaling they would attack in SE Ukraine toward Kherson and in late August began destroying Russian supply lines, bridges, and numerous other important targets with rockets, other weapons, and saboteurs. Two weeks ago, the Ukrainians west of Kherson began numerous probing attacks across a broad front about 100 kilometers wide. It was not large-scale massed tank warfare but smaller units using the advanced weapons provided by the US and NATO with innovative tactics being employed by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian attacks were successful, not major victories, but enough to seriously threaten the Russian positions.
In light of the signaled and actual attacks in the SE, the Russians shifted men and weapons there from both the central east Donbas and from the NE Kharkiv region, weakening their defenses in both areas. There had been little major activity north and east of Kharkiv and stalemate in the Donbas.
As we looked at the detailed maps, we noted, and pointed out in numerous recent TRs, there is a major rail junction and road junction in the town of Kubyansk, creating a major supply and communications chokepoint about 75 kilometers due east of Kharkiv. It was an obvious point to attack and several days ago the Ukrainians attacked in significant strength.
They surprised the Russians and quickly advanced at least 75 kilometers and captured the west side of Kubyansk where the rail and supply lines reside. The Russians appear surprised, disorganized, and unable to respond effectively. This is a major loss for the Russians for two main reasons. First, it cuts off the supply lines from Russia north of Ukraine to the thousands of troops Russia has NE, E, and SE of Kharkiv. They are in jeopardy, and many have already been cut-off. Second, if Ukraine can hold Kubyansk as well as Izyum, which they partially took over the weekend, thousands or more Russians and their equipment will be abandoned or surrendered. The psychological effect of such an outcome will change attitudes in Russia, Ukraine, and in the NATO countries dramatically.
Finally, we want to introduce a military concept that will probably become relevant in future weeks or months. The term is “culmination.” It is the point at which an army can no longer mount effective attacks and can just defend its ground or retreat. The Russians are not there yet but could find themselves there soon.
On the map below there is a purple watermelon shape. That is the area under attack by Ukraine and a Russian retreat is underway.
Stay tuned to the daily news from the war as the facts on the ground are changing very rapidly.
Prediction Updates
The predictions below were first made in the TR on November 1, 2021.
Prediction #1 — China’s average inflation adjusted “real” GDP growth rate will fall to 2% or less by 2024.
UPDATE — Status – the prediction is right on-target so far, with China’s financial and economic problems now expanding. The collapse of their property development sector continues and worsens. Covid continues to cause economic and political problems for China. China’s support of Putin and his war is also hurting it badly as the West’s economic sanctions bite.
NEW – China’s economic statistics for July came in very weak suggesting their severe slowdown will last all year.
NEW – Severe drought and extreme summer heat are further weakening China’s economy.
NEW –The big tech company Huawei is one of biggest and most important in China. Its leaders are very close to China’s political leaders. Those facts make it astounding to hear what Huawei’s founder told his employees recently. He warned that Huawei and the Chinese economy would have a “very painful” decade and that the company might not even survive. His message leaked and was published widely on social media before the government could shut it down.
NEW – The WSJ reported last week that “China hit an ominous milestone last week as one of the largest property developers reported a 96% profit drop, blaming a “severe depression” in the real estate market where “only the fittest can survive.”
China’s situation looks increasingly like the US did before the Great Recession of 2008-9.
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Prediction #2 — Mainstream American resistance and a counter-revolution against Wokeness, CRT, Cancel Culture, Virtue-signaling, BLM, transgender nonsense, censorship, Defund the Police, etc. are now much stronger than the Woke revolution itself.
Status
Radical Woke Ds continue to lose local elections in areas where they have won for decades. Defund the Police is now Refund the Police even in very liberal cities.
The big test for those who want a “Woke America” is coming on November 8.
And the Supreme Court decision in the West Virginia v. EPA case strongly constrains administrative and executive overreach that will greatly reduce the possibility of Woke nonsense.
A new overly woke and poor-quality Batgirl film was canned by Paramount before even being released.
Conservatives around the country continue to defeat woke liberals in school board elections.
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Prediction #3 — Fall 2021 will be marked as the beginning of the failure and collapse of the Climate Change/Anti-Fossil Fuel movement. Rapid declines in 2022 and 2023 will follow.
UPDATE — Status — Climate change hysteria is now diminishing but still strong in some rich countries and some quarters in the US. But on a worldwide basis it is DEAD. The world has clearly decided that wind and solar are far too expensive and quite unreliable as primary sources of power. If you doubt that note the hard facts below.
FACT – Global coal production is at an all-time record this year and is predicted to go much higher in 2023. It is delusional to think that fossil fuel use is going to fall. A large majority of the world’s countries will substantially increase fossil fuel production and use. There is no way that climate change hysterics can change that.
FACT – The US Supreme Court’s 6 to 3 decision recently makes it essentially impossible for the US to meet the Biden administration’s fossil fuel lowering goals by 2030. The Court ruled that the EPA does not have the power to set nationwide emissions rules, only to set rules for individual plants if they have specific health or safety problems. Congress did not grant the EPA economy-wide control and neither the current Congress nor the next Congress, which will be more conservative, is likely to do so.
FACT – Japan is planning to reopen several large nuclear power plants to assure they have enough electric power this winter. The problem is unreliable wind and solar power and unreliable energy imports from Russia.
FACT – Germany is now actively planning to keep its last three nuclear power plants open. They were to be decommissioned at year end. Germany has wasted trillions on a transition to unreliable wind and solar power. They are paying a huge financial, quality of life, and political price.
FACT – Poorer countries are ignoring their previous commitments to “green” renewables and turning fully back to coal and other cheaper energy sources. Cost is the key. It is now clear that the rich world will never pay the poor world the $1.3 trillion per year demanded of the rich world by the poor world. It will take several more years to see the full effects of the waning of the climate hysteria but there is no doubt reality, facts, and unmanageable costs are destroying most of the movement’s political power.
NEW FACT – Even the rich world is now reneging on their previous promises to reduce CO2 emissions and temporizing on any new commitments. As I predicted, the climate change hysteria is collapsing in the face of economic reality.
The good news is that existential climate change fears were never justified by accurate facts and good science.
FACT — A massive transition to renewables is NOT physically or financially feasible for at least 40-years, if then. There are not enough crucial materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth minerals, and hundreds of other essential components to build the EVs and windmills and solar cells necessary for the transition. And environmentalists in the US and elsewhere are preventing new mines for such essential minerals to be built. The greens are destroying their own fantasy.
FACT — The war and last winter’s energy crisis in Europe have greatly weakened the climate change hysteria in Europe. President Biden’s deal with Europe to replace Russian natural gas with US LNG and the drilling and pipelines needed in the US to meet that promise effectively puts a stake in the heart of the Green New Deal in the US. That is not hyperbole, just a political and economic truth.
FACT – The EU has now endorsed nuclear power as “green” because it is renewable and fossil fuel free. They have also designated natural gas [NG] as green which it is not. But they had no real choice as their economies cannot function without vast quantities of fossil fuels. It is delusional for anyone to think otherwise. This is just another step in the slow realization that fossil fuel use is going to increase, not decrease.
NEW FACT – As a result of the energy crisis across the globe nuclear power is likely to experience a strong revival with old plants staying in operation and new plants being constructed. Good news is also coming later this decade with new safe small nuclear reactors [SNRs] becoming commercially available.
NEW FACT – It is a great irony that the climate change hysterics caused the current worldwide energy crisis and nuclear power will clearly be a major part of the solution.
FACT — Net-zero CO2 emissions is not necessary to achieve, as we innovative humans can use good science and good engineering to solve the problems modest global warming will cause.
If you fear climate change is a serious threat, assuage your fears by reading “Unsettled” by Steven Koonin PhD. Koonin is one of the world’s top scientists. He is a self-declared Democrat and was the Chief Scientist in the Obama-Biden Department of Energy. He was also the President of Caltech. It will cost you just $20 and a day of reading to calm your fears and those of your family.
Tuchfarber Political Psychiatry Tests
- Thirty Day Test: When you get upset about something in the news, take several deep breaths and ask if it is likely to matter much in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be important then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.
- Get Accurate Facts Test: Try not to jump to conclusions based on inadequate facts. Do not trust the “facts” or analyses from the mainstream media. The MSM is full of fake news, outright lies, and partisan spin. Some right-leaning media outlets are also full of nonsense.
NOTES
I thought it would be useful to describe my philosophy for the TR and my main methods.
My purpose is NOT to push an agenda but to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions.
I REPORT ACCURATE FACTS, ANALYSES, AND PREDICTIONS EVEN IF I DO PERSONALLY LIKE THEM.
TR Land is not the Land of Chicken Little where the sky is always falling.
It is also not Fantasy Utopia Land where everything is simply fine.
TR Land is a land of accurate researched facts, accurate analyses, and accurate predictions.
Each year I make 60 to 80 predictions at the start of the year. Experts disagree vehemently about the issues I address. From 2017 through 2021 my predictions have been correct 91% of the time.
Al Tuchfarber — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
I certainly hope Dr. Tuchfarber is correct in his analyses. It would represent a sea change worldwide. – The Liberator
I can see this being so!