It Ends as it Began: As a Political Ploy

Jeffrey A. Tucker, Brownstone Institute

The current US president finally said it during a 60 Minutes interview: “The pandemic is over.” Though obviously true by the classical definition, Biden’s comment seemed almost accidental, said as an echoed response to a direct question. 

Consider, however, that many times as many people die from Covid daily in the US (300-400) than when the US first announced the outrageous lockdowns of March 16, 2020. In those days, deaths were approaching 50 per day, mostly in New York. It will very likely get worse over the winter months. 

Instead of today’s calm and relaxed attitude – just chill because infection, disease, and death are just part of life – there were banshee screams from the whole of governments and media. People were running around with their hair on fire, dousing themselves with sanitizer, wiping down groceries, and hiding under their sofas from the “invisible enemy.”

Back then, if you raised any doubts about closures, masks, forced separation, domestic capacity restrictions, or suggested it might not be the worst thing to keep businesses open, or were caught getting a haircut, you were shamed, shouted down, and banned by social media. You could even get fired. 

Ask yourself: why the panic then and the calm now? What precisely has changed? 

In those days, every new death – even every new case! – was blamed on the Trump administration. People even today say that Trump had no choice but to lock down because otherwise the criticisms would have been globally deafening. So Trump and his closest advisors sat in their Oval Office hothouse and listened to the wise council of Fauci that the only way to deal with a virus is to stop all human activity.

So here we are today, all nonchalant and casual about the whole thing even as the CDC chart on community spread looks like this right now. 

Receiving less attention was Biden’s immediate follow-up. “If you notice, no one is wearing masks. Everyone seems to be in pretty good shape.”

Hold on there a minute. Is it really all about such casual perceptions of one guy touring a car show?

If everyone was wearing a mask – the Biden administration is still appealing its right to impose a mandate – would it be evidence that the pandemic is still on? If so, might that help explain why the Biden administration was so intent on pushing for mass masking? It served the cosmetic purpose of whipping up public panic…for political and not medical reasons.

If that is true, we live in a dystopian world in which the government itself can create and uncreate a pandemic depending on the political priorities of the day. 

As for the eyeball test that everyone Biden sees is “in pretty good” shape, that was true throughout the entire period of panicked and egregious statism. The demographic subject to medically significant outcomes was always very small. The 99.8% of people were always going to be in pretty good shape, but for the astounding psychological, economic, and public-health disaster imposed by the lockdowns themselves. 

Yes, the “new virus” is now endemic and wholly manageable, due to mass infection and recovery. It was never going to end any other way. We knew this from February 2020. It’s the way every pandemic of this type of virus ends, all extremely well-documented over the past 100 years or, really, thousands of years. 

The policy response to the pandemic is what was the outlier. After spending two and a half years watching the unfolding of the great public-health disaster of our lifetimes, it’s impossible to avoid the conclusion that this has always been about politics and the manipulation of public perceptions. The reality that we chose to see was heavily informed by media propaganda and political priorities. 

That’s a terrifying reality. 

For example, it’s impossible to avoid the observation that the pandemic response was motivated at least in part by the desire to drive Trump out of office. 

What better way to crush a presidency than to panic the president himself into wrecking the economy that was his strongest selling point during a critical election year? It was a masterful plot and you don’t have to be a dreaded “conspiracy theorist” to see it. 

Moreover, it was not just about Trump himself. It was about much larger agendas and directions that the administration was headed that threatened some very powerful interests, the investigations of which should consume years of work. Theories abound about the real reasons – Fauci and gain-of-function research, WEF and its agenda, an experiment in unleashing hipster techno-primitivism – and we are still a long way off from knowing the full truth. 

Why Mike Pence, Jared Kushner, and other presumed Trump partisans in the inner circle could not see it is the question. For that matter, why couldn’t FOX see it? Why couldn’t the Trump partisans in think tanks and magazines see it? 

It was perfectly obvious at the time that this was precisely what was going on. Why did observing the obvious become so completely unsayable? 

In the same way, it is perfectly obvious that the new calm that Biden is hawking is all about creating an environment of normalcy leading to midterm elections just 6 weeks away. The Democrats obviously need every advantage. Declaring an end to the pandemic provides some help on the margin. 

It should rattle any concerned citizen of the US – or just any rational person – that such a massive issue as a deadly pandemic could be turned on and off by perception management by powerful elites in government, tech, and media. And yet, the evidence is overwhelming that we have seen just such an operation at work over these pandemic years. 

Even now, despite more sophisticated data collection and distribution than we’ve ever had, we are at a loss to state with precision just how severe this pandemic truly was. Between wild inaccuracies of PCR testing plus rampant death misclassification, not to mention the ongoing confusions over infections vs cases, there is no real consensus on the basic measurements one might need to make a scientific assessment. 

To be sure, there are those who believe that the arrival of the Omicron variant is itself a good enough reason for the shift from panic to calm. The variant is said to be more prevalent but less severe. But this is a confusion: such variants do not arrive with a preset severity stamp on them, programmed to impact the population in a particular way. It always depends on preexisting immunities. 

Whether and to what extent these viruses are nothing alarming or massively devastating is largely contingent on the immunological mappings of the population itself. It was exposure to previous Covid variants that resulted in less medically significant outcomes from the mutations that occurred later. 

An isolated tribe in the Outback or Amazon rainforest that had never been exposed to any coronaviruses could face terrible disease and death from the variants that the developed world now regards as mild. For such people, Omicron could be just as devastating or more so than the original wild type. (I owe this point to the ever-brilliant Sunetra Gupta.) 

In addition, one might suppose that the end of the panic would also mean the end of the restrictions and mandates. Not so. The state of emergency is still on. People are still being fired for refusing the vaccine. My unvaccinated friends from the UK, Australia, and Europe are still not even allowed into this country! The whole thing is outrageous and embarrassing. 

And as Jonathan Turley has written:

Now the President is declaring that the pandemic is over as the Justice Department is defending pandemic policies in various courts. Even if one were to argue that the policy should be reviewed as supported at the time, the continued viability of the policy can now be questioned in light of the President’s own statements. The President’s comments also highlight the fluidity of pandemic policies. While we often look to the CDC on such status statements, it is the President who ultimately decides federal policies on pandemic measures.

Interesting phrase: the fluidity of pandemic policies. Keep in mind that most of the powers that allowed them to lock you in your home, quarantine the well, shut churches and schools, restrict travels, even prosecute people for holding parties, weddings, and funerals all still exist. There has been no rollback of any powers presumed by the CDC. Their website even now lays out their own quarantine plans for the next time. 

There must absolutely be a serious challenge to all these government powers. They were abused for political reasons and ended up brutalizing the whole population here and around the world, in violation of all law and tradition. There have been no apologies from the top, only vague promises of reforms that end only in more centralization and funding. This must change before the whole disaster is repeated. 

It is not enough for the president to declare an end. It does not end until we end the emergency powers and get an ironclad guarantee that nothing of this sort can ever happen again. One might suppose the Bill of Rights would have been enough but it was not. We need more. And it needs to be explicit and enforceable. That cannot happen until there is a full accounting of the outrages that have been visited upon the country. Only then can we say that everything and everyone “seems to be in pretty good shape.”

Regardless of the source of the virus’s release – but the timing was entirely suspect – the response to the virus was clearly political, and the motive was the defeat of Trump. The lawsuits and indictments must continue until there is no doubt as to cause and motive, and the identification and punishment of the perpetrators. THIS MUST NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN! – The Liberator

Michael Savage: Biden ‘Worst’ President in My Lifetime, Administration Unrivaled in ‘Evil, Corruption’

Joshua Klein, Breitbart

Reflecting on the country’s last 15 presidencies, from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Joe Biden, conservative radio legend Michael Savage argued that Biden is the “worst” president to lead the country during his lifetime, claiming a “criminal enterprise [is] running the country,” while highlighting the current border crisis, the recent Afghanistan withdrawal, the return to energy dependence, and the “authoritarian” COVID-19 mandate.

Detailing “the good, the bad, and the ugly” aspects of the presidents who ruled America over the last several decades, Savage weighed in on today’s issues during his latest podcast.

Having been born in 1942, when Roosevelt was president, Savage claimed “we are now living under another Democrat President called Joseph Biden, who is not really a president in any sense of the word.”

Arguing the way to objectively judge a president is by his “domestic and worldly successes and failures,” Savage explained why it was up to the individual to decide if the president met these standards.

“With a very small cadre of extreme far-left or Marxist-light so-called presidential historians as the only source to answer our question, we really have to rely upon our own observed realities,” he said. 

“We can’t rely upon so-called presidential historians — they’re all part and parcel of the same machine that’s destroying this country,” he added. “They’re of the far-left variety, the socialist variety, the Marxist variety.”

For example, he noted, “almost all Americans would say they respect and love” John F. Kennedy, the 35th president of the United States. 

“Is this a product of a sort of mass hypnosis? Media propaganda? Or his actualities?” he asked. “Likewise, in reverse, most knowledgeable Americans know that Jimmy Carter was an abject failure.” 

“Both domestically and on the international stage, Carter was a disaster for this country,” he added. 

Open Borders

According to Savage, we are currently “living with a presidency that seems to be a foreign power dominating this country rather than an actual presidency in a party of the United States of America,” especially considering this administration has “welcomed 4 million illegal aliens” from South and Central America, Africa, and the Middle East, “almost all of whom have not been vetted for terrorist ties, for diseases… nor for plain old criminal activities such as smuggling drugs.” 

As a result, he added, one can conclude “that when they’re bringing in a population larger than that of some states, we have a criminal enterprise running the country.”

Though Savage admitted there have been other presidents “who were weak, like Jimmy Carter,” or “whose loyalties were questionable, such as Barack Obama,” and yet others “who may have been as corrupt as Joseph Biden,” the country has never “had a package of such evil and corruption as we currently have.”

Savage accused Biden of creating “the worst border crisis in American history.”

“He has literally melted down our border with Mexico,” he said. “Four million illegal aliens have not only come in, but have been invited in.” 

“That’s larger than some states,” he added, as he pointed to the fact that many are “diseased,” “criminals,” or “drug carriers,” often appearing as “gang members.”

Noting the problem “isn’t abating,” Savage accused the media of turning US Border Patrol agents into “dummies.” 

“They’re made into the enemy of America instead of the guardians of America,” he lamented. 

Afghanistan Withdrawal

He called attention to Biden’s actions in Afghanistan, which he urged Americans to “never forget.”

“A shamble of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, [it is] one of the low points of his presidency and one of the lowest points of American foreign policy since the fall of Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War,” he said. “He left $175 billion of military equipment picked up by Islamic radicals.”

In addition, Savage stated, the Biden administration “assured the country that the withdrawal would be orderly and the Afghanistan government was stable upon America’s departure.”

Calling it a “massive failure of intelligence” after the Afghan government collapsed and the radical Taliban took over the country in just weeks, Savage also detailed how Biden “abandoned our Afghani partners,” and armed terrorists. 

“He gave equipment to the Taliban and other Islamic radicals — American equipment — they’re now wearing American uniforms and driving around in American Humvees,” he said. 

Energy Dependence

Savage also accused Biden of “taking us back to energy dependence.” 

Though during the Trump presidency, the US “became a net exporter of oil for the first time in 75 years,” according to Savage, the “psychos in the Biden administration took away this strategy.” 

“Instead, these sickos encourage an increase in green energy at the expense of fossil fuels and good clean nuclear energy,” he said. 

“These renewable energy zealots are a long way from meeting global energy needs, and Biden put more regulatory burdens on the oil and natural gas industry slowing its production considerably,” he added.

Most importantly, Savage argued, “the nutcases in the Biden administration shut down the Keystone XL pipeline project to move oil from Canada to the United States while effectively greenlighting the financing of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to carry natural gas to Germany.” 

Domestic Threat

Addressing the “disaster of the Joe Biden presidency,” of which “we’re only halfway through,” Savage insisted “our country is facing an existential threat, where an enemy within has finally shown its face, and it’s nakedly saying it wants to destroy and intimidate its way into a transformed state and nation, a transformed nation that we cannot recognize.”

He also compared the Biden administration to a “radical vigilante woke mob that knocks down and steamrolls anything and anyone that gets in their way:” 

They attack the American way in a clear and intensifying manner. They stifle dissent. They’re using the FBI as a personal Gestapo. They publicly shame parents who stand up to the perverse agendas of the radical, perverse left. They encouraged the violence of Antifa and Black Lives Matter. They perverted, distorted the realities of our great history, not only tearing down monuments and buildings, but tearing down the American spirit itself. 

Savage then accused the current administration of encouraging the “mobs of wokesters” to “go after the family unit, go after parental rights, go after the traditional moral values, tear down the meaning of the church, [and] tear down fact-based education.”

“We’re all watching as this evil group tries to brainwash our young babies into thinking we live in an evil, racist, irredeemable nation,” he said.

The Biden administration, Savage argued, has “denied science and data.” 

“They say that a boy is a girl and a girl is a boy if they say they are such.” 

In addition, “they trample over personal liberties that are enshrined in the Constitution, throwing teachers out of jobs who refuse to bend their knee to their perverse agenda,” he continued. “They take to the streets like criminals, burning, looting and destroying everything in sight while we are told by the vermin in the media that these are mostly peaceful and passionate protests.”

Big Tech and Media

Savage also called out “big tech moguls in Silicon Valley” as “the only arbiters of truth, deciding who gets to speak and who gets silenced through the digital public squares that they own.”

“We watch the legacy media muffle legitimately verifiable news stories that do not align with their preferred narrative, only to see the truth seep out months later at a more politically expedient time,” he said.

“The enemy within has taken over media,” he added.

Noting that “corporate boards, professional sports, foundations, [and] professional institutions have steamrolled and left no corner of our lives untouched,” Savage suggested what could be done in response.

“The first thing to do is have knowledge of what the enemy within is doing to us,” he proposed. “Only by knowing what they’re doing to us can we stand up to defeat their false pretenses and predetermined narratives and false promises.” 

As a result, Savage argued, “we must know more about Biden than we already know,” as he ripped the media for its portrayal of the “disaster” taking place at the southern border.

“The security at the southern border is an ongoing disaster, given almost no coverage by the worthless stooges in the legacy media,” he said. “The Jake Tappers, the Wolf Blitzers; they are nothing but mouthpieces for a Stalinist regime.”

“The massive spike in border crossings [was] initially excused by the Biden allies in the media as a ‘seasonal problem,’” he added. “Yeah, well, it was really ‘seasonal.’ It was called ‘open borders’ season.”

COVID-19

Savage then slammed the Biden administration’s “authoritarian COVID-19 mandates” whereby “private employers and other organizations with over 100 [or] more employees [were] to enforce a vaccine mandate, despite [Biden] saying that he didn’t think it was exactly constitutional.”  

“This liar tried to turn us all into guinea pigs for this unproven vaccine, not really tested except on a massive population,” he added. “And we still do not know what the long-term effects of this vaccine are.” 

Crime

In addition, Biden’s presidency has seen “an explosion of violent crime” that began in the summer of 2020, Savage stated, in a trend that was “exacerbated by the Democrat-controlled media tied in with the ‘defund the police’ movement.”

“In fact, because many Democrat-run cities made good on this slogan by defunding their police departments and stemming the use of proactive policing, the criminals are running wild in the streets: rapes, murders, beatings, robberies, break-ins,” he said. 

“Cities that defunded police agencies make the list of places with the largest increases in violent crime,” he added.

However, Savage noted that now “these so-called city leaders are changing their tune and restoring police funding after much of the damage has been done, but it will never be good again because not only have the police been defunded, they have been demoralized.” 

“They’ve been turned into the bad guys instead of the good guys,” he added. “How many times over the years did I tell you that the thin blue line was the only thing standing between us and total and absolute anarchy? I was right.”

Economy & Ukraine

On the economy, Savage noted today’s rising inflation as he called out the president for having said inflation would be a “temporary problem” his administration had a handle on. 

“Right now we have unchecked inflation,” he said. “And they can’t control it because they’re printing money, and they’re spending money on a foreign war that nobody voted for.” 

Savage blamed President Biden for having “dragged us into a proxy war against Russia.” 

“We all want to see poor little Ukraine survive. We all don’t like the evil wolf or the big bear of Russia. But putting aside what we like and don’t like, it’s not our business,” he said. 

“Putting aside the fact that he’s sending our military equipment and billions and billions of our money, billions and billions of our tax dollars, to Ukraine,” Savage continued, “how much of it is being tracked?” 

“How do you know how much of this money isn’t going into the pockets of the corrupt officials in Ukraine? How much of it is being kicked back to Democrat officials in America? Do we know?” he asked.

Trump Supporters 

However, “worst of all,” Savage argued, is that President Biden “attacked Trump supporters.”

“He called those of us who support Donald Trump a threat to democracy. He used U.S. Marines as political props during [his] September 1 Mussolini speech in Philadelphia,” he said. “The president said ‘We’re not bystanders in this ongoing attack on democracy. There are far more Americans from every background and belief that reject the extreme MAGA ideology than those that accept it.’”

Addressing the president, Savage asserted that “most Americans accept the MAGA ideology.”

“What does it really stand for? It stands for ‘America First,’” he said. 

“That’s not a good thing, Biden?” he asked. “It stands for borders, language and culture. That’s not American, Mr. Biden? Which side are you on, Mr. Biden?” 

Savage concluded by stating that “some of us can see the future, some of us can see around corners.” 

“I hope you understand,” he said. “I’m one of those.”

Last month, following the FBI raid on former President Trump’s estate, Savage accused the Biden administration of having brought a “nightmare” upon America as it “dragged us into the Dark Ages” and “raped half the nation,” as he slammed hypocritical “liberals” for “cheering” on “fascism.”

Listen to the full podcast here.

The list of criminals enabling this takedown of America by Biden & Co. is deep and wide…even worldwide. It makes a normal, red-blooded, patriotic American ask the obvious question, “Why are they doing this to the greatest country in world history? What could possibly be the agenda of so many disparate groups?”

The list of enablers includes the mass media, social media, Big Tech, Education, Hollywood, the lawyers, corporatists, globalists, Wall Street, our military leaders, Democrat politicians, the bureaucratic swamp, too damn many Republican politicians, Europe, the United Nations, Canada, Mexico, nearly all third world countries, and nearly half of our own voters including, saddest of all, the majority of our young citizens.

It seems as though the only groups standing in support of America as founded are Main Street USA, a few million conservative citizens, and a small army of voices in the conservative media. I hate to say it, but it feels like we’re going to have to fight the Revolutionary War again to save the country! – The Liberator

Quote of the Day

“They attack the American way in a clear and intensifying manner. They stifle dissent. They’re using the FBI as a personal Gestapo. They publicly shame parents who stand up to the perverse agendas of the radical, perverse left. They encouraged the violence of Antifa and Black Lives Matter. They perverted, distorted the realities of our great history, not only tearing down monuments and buildings, but tearing down the American spirit itself.” – Michael Savage on the Biden Legacy

THIS is Liberalism

Ted Cruz forced to admit trafficking migrants to Martha’s Vineyard is illegal in Sean Hannity interview

Ron DeSantis widely criticized for flying two planeloads of Venezuelans to upscale Massachusetts island

Graeme Masse, Independent News

Ted Cruz was forced to admit by Sean Hannity that the transportation of undocumented migrants from Florida to Martha’s Vineyard by Ron DeSantis was likely illegal.

The Florida governor has been widely criticised for flying two planeloads of Venezuelans to the upscale island, where Barack Obama has a $12m home, as part of a Republican immigration publicity stunt.

Mr Cruz, a US Senator from Texas, cast doubt on the legality of the move when he appeared on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show.

Hannity asked the Canadian-born lawmaker whether he would likely face arrest if he had personally taken a truck, collected immigrants from the border, and driven them across the country.

This is the lunacy of liberal thinking. Millions of illegals allowed and even encouraged to enter AMERICA by Biden & Mayorca ISN’T ILLEGAL, but 50 illegals arrive in Martha’s Vineyard and it’s a national scandal. What do you think was the point of the Martha’s Vineyard illegals drop?? It was to draw attention to the insanity of Biden’s immigration policies! Good grief, talk about selective outrage. Fifty illegals shipped to Martha’s Vineyard is more egregious than 3 million+ and counting illegals allowed into the US and provided with billions of dollars in benefits free of charge. Hilarious.

This will all blow up in the Dems faces on Election Day in less than two months.

– The Liberator

The Tuchfarber Report

Here is an interesting report on the current state of affairs from Dr. Al Tuchfarber, founder of the Ohio Poll, one of the nation’s most accurate, while directing the social science Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati from 1975 to 2004.

September 12, 2022

A Changing World

In-Brief

  • The US and world a year or two from now are going to look amazingly different.
  • A severe defeat for Democratic candidates in November is still in the cards notwithstanding Republican fears they have some weak candidates. Keep your powder dry until late October when we will see the last-minute trends.
  • The Russians in Ukraine are suffering horribly from numerous major Ukrainian attacks. The war is at a key stage with major Ukrainian advances day by day.
  • Inflation stays historically high and is likely to stay high throughout 2022 but is now beginning to moderate substantially.
  • China’s economy remains in deep trouble and is stagnant or in a recession.
  • Nuclear power is making a strong comeback and will be critical in solving the worldwide energy crisis.

In Depth

Our Rapidly Changing World

I come back to this “rapidly changing world” concept often, because it is true. Our countries and the whole world order are changing extremely fast, far more than most think.

I believe that the next few months and next several years will see dramatic changes that greatly favor the US and the West over authoritarian countries and ideas. Five of those dramatic changes are listed below. I have written about all of them in previous TRs but now list them together to give you a clear “big picture.”

In numerous future weeks I will address these dramatic changes explaining their causes and consequences. My personal standard for making major predictions is that the hard facts convince me that the prediction is 80 percent or more likely to be correct. That applies to each of the predictions below. These are not casual predictions on my part. I have spent thousands of hours studying each situation.

Major Predictions

  1. China’s four decades of rapid economic growth are ending. From this year forward and in most future years China will fall further behind US economic power. India will pass China as the #2 world-power about mid-century.
  2. Russia has already lost the Russian-Ukraine war and because of it will be rated as a third-tier power for the foreseeable future. The war and its aftermath will substantially diminish Russia’s world-standing and its military, economic, and political power.
  3. The US will dominate the 21st century economically, scientifically, militarily, culturally, and politically.
  4. The unnecessary hysteria over climate change and the trillions wasted subsidizing renewable energy is now dying a political death. Except for pockets in the US and Europe most of the countries of the world have already abandoned net-zero emissions as a plausible goal.
  5. Authoritarian woke radicalism in the US will be rejected by the voters in the 2022 and 2024 US elections.

Each week in future TRs you will find explanations and elaborations on these predictions as well as comments on their accuracy. A scattering of explanations appear today in various sections.

TUCHFARBER ELECTION PREDICTIONS

I’m still not going to change my predictions, but it is clear that the FBI raid on Trump’s home in Florida has infuriated, outraged, and motivated Republican and independent voters to turn out and vote against Ds. I am also NOT going to change my predictions because the Rs nominated some relatively weak candidates. When one party sweeps an election even some weak candidates win, and strong candidates lose.

Note that I have NOT changed my predictions for over a month because I do not believe the overall political situation has changed much.

We are now just 57 days from the November election. The real campaign has started and will peak in the last two weeks before the election.

US House – the Rs will gain a minimum of 35 seats and perhaps twice that number. The Rs will end up with a large majority in the House.

US Senate – the Rs will gain a net of three Senate seats and up to six seats. The Rs will have a minimum of a six-seat Senate majority.

Governorships – The Rs will gain a net of anywhere from 2 to 8 governorships winning up to 10 governorships now held by Democrats but losing several they now hold.

State Legislatures – The Rs will gain hundreds of state House and Senate seats.

I’ll update these predictions on a regular basis and get more specific as the election nears.

A Reminder of Factors Causing These Predictions

  1. In the first midterm election for a new President the President’s party loses an average of about 30 House seats.
  2. A Presidential approval rating of under 45% foretells a large election defeat in a midterm – Biden is now at 43%.
  3. When less than 32% of voters think the country is going the “right direction” the President’s party gets hammered in the next election – “right direction” is now at 23%.
  4. The polling question asking for which party poll respondents will vote for in upcoming House elections needs to be plus 5.0 or 6.0% for Ds for them to break even with the Rs in seats won – that metric is now at D+0.4%.
  5. More enthusiasm among voters of either party bodes well for that party’s election success. Last week’s YouGov poll, a D leaning poll, showed 47% of Rs more enthusiastic than usual about voting in November and just 35% of Ds more enthused.
  6. Dozens of polls have shown Hispanic and Asian-American Democratic voters drifting to the Republicans. No demographic or geographic group appears to be moving to the Ds in significant numbers.

Never just accept my analysis.  In all cases, seek independent confirmation if any issue is vitally important to you. CHECK THE ACCURACY OF MY FACTS AND ANALYSES.

POLLS

RealClearPolitics Averages:

  • Biden Approval – 43% approval and 54% disapprovals. Any approval rating below 45% is a disaster for the President’s party in the midterms.
  • Direction of Country – 23% right direction and 70% wrong track – anything below 32% right direction is a disaster for the party in power.
  • Ballot choice for November congressional elections – 44.1%R and 44.5% D. [The Ds need to lead by 5 points on this measure to tie the Rs for seats in the US House because D votes are concentrated in the big cities while the R votes are spread widely.]

These averages have changed little in either direction over the last month and one-half indicating very little substantive change in the political situation at this time.

Polls in individual races are frequently changing as new candidates get known by the voters. Races have shown huge leads for some incumbents while other races are closing. The key thing in predicting the correct winner will be where the close races stand about two weeks before the elections.

How is the Economy Doing?

If we are in a recession, it is a very strange one. We have full employment, solid consumer spending, and good corporate profits. But we also have tanked stock markets and crushing inflation. Severe damage has already been done to investors and tens of millions of households.

The FED and other central banks are crushing demand around the globe. They hope this move will decrease inflation, but it could also cause recessions.

  1. Worldwide demand for goods and services is being slammed by rising interest rates and the Ukraine war’s ravages. The decrease in demand means it is coming in line with supply for many commodities resulting in price decreases. Getting supply and demand in balance is the way to greatly decrease the ravages of high inflation.
  2. NEW – The economy produced 315,000 jobs in August. It is not now in recession. But growth has slowed to a crawl.
  3. A pattern has emerged. Economic indicators that include personal opinions from consumers or managers are falling because people are scared. The stock and bond market declines and volatility have people legitimately frightened. Consumer confidence is low but stats that measure just hard facts are strong. Indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and business inventories, which are just hard numbers with no human opinions included, are still strong. Other indicators of economic activity that are completely up-to-date weekly are still solid. We’ll watch to see if that pattern continues.
  4. NEW — The US has about 6 million people out of work who are looking for work. A recent report from the government showed that we had over 11 million open jobs in July, a large increase from June. That is almost two unfilled jobs for every unemployed American.
  5. With the country being at full employment and the ability of most households to spend, a recession this year is unlikely but possible. But high inflation is still seriously damaging many poor, working-class, and middle-middle-class families.
  6. NEW – Last week the Dow was up 2.7%, the S&P was up 3.6%, and the NASDAQ was up 4.1 %.
  7. The Biden plan to forgive up to $20,000 in student debt is inflationary and unfair to most American households. Even some Ds running for election have labelled it a bad idea.
  8. UPDATE – CANARY IN THE COAL MINE — Weekly unemployment claims were down markedly to 220,000 from the previous week. This is the same number of claims as right before the pandemic. An official recession is very unlikely if unemployment stays quite low. Unemployment claims are a hard indicator of the strength of the economy and are updated weekly. They can be one of the canaries in the coal mine to give us an early warning about a recession if one is on the way. There is a lot of noise out there from individual employers about layoffs or cutting back on hiring but NO major evidence yet of a widespread problem.

Until we get that, no dying canary, and probably no recession, at least in the short-run.

But we are getting very mixed signals about the direction of the economy.  Have no doubt that the FED is crushing demand and hopes for a recession to curb inflation. Stay tuned…

Global Political Economics

Major Battles in Ukraine

By Al Tuchfarber and Tom Schram

For most of the summer, the battle lines in Ukraine were at a stalemate with neither side launching major attacks and neither army gaining much ground. Mid-summer, the Ukrainians began signaling they would attack in SE Ukraine toward Kherson and in late August began destroying Russian supply lines, bridges, and numerous other important targets with rockets, other weapons, and saboteurs. Two weeks ago, the Ukrainians west of Kherson began numerous probing attacks across a broad front about 100 kilometers wide. It was not large-scale massed tank warfare but smaller units using the advanced weapons provided by the US and NATO with innovative tactics being employed by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian attacks were successful, not major victories, but enough to seriously threaten the Russian positions.

In light of the signaled and actual attacks in the SE, the Russians shifted men and weapons there from both the central east Donbas and from the NE Kharkiv region, weakening their defenses in both areas. There had been little major activity north and east of Kharkiv and stalemate in the Donbas.

As we looked at the detailed maps, we noted, and pointed out in numerous recent TRs, there is a major rail junction and road junction in the town of Kubyansk, creating a major supply and communications chokepoint about 75 kilometers due east of Kharkiv. It was an obvious point to attack and several days ago the Ukrainians attacked in significant strength.

They surprised the Russians and quickly advanced at least 75 kilometers and captured the west side of Kubyansk where the rail and supply lines reside. The Russians appear surprised, disorganized, and unable to respond effectively. This is a major loss for the Russians for two main reasons. First, it cuts off the supply lines from Russia north of Ukraine to the thousands of troops Russia has NE, E, and SE of Kharkiv. They are in jeopardy, and many have already been cut-off. Second, if Ukraine can hold Kubyansk as well as Izyum, which they partially took over the weekend, thousands or more Russians and their equipment will be abandoned or surrendered. The psychological effect of such an outcome will change attitudes in Russia, Ukraine, and in the NATO countries dramatically.

Finally, we want to introduce a military concept that will probably become relevant in future weeks or months. The term is “culmination.” It is the point at which an army can no longer mount effective attacks and can just defend its ground or retreat. The Russians are not there yet but could find themselves there soon.

On the map below there is a purple watermelon shape. That is the area under attack by Ukraine and a Russian retreat is underway.

Stay tuned to the daily news from the war as the facts on the ground are changing very rapidly.

Prediction Updates

The predictions below were first made in the TR on November 1, 2021.

Prediction #1 — China’s average inflation adjusted “real” GDP growth rate will fall to 2% or less by 2024.

UPDATE — Status – the prediction is right on-target so far, with China’s financial and economic problems now expanding. The collapse of their property development sector continues and worsens. Covid continues to cause economic and political problems for China. China’s support of Putin and his war is also hurting it badly as the West’s economic sanctions bite.

NEW – China’s economic statistics for July came in very weak suggesting their severe slowdown will last all year.

NEW – Severe drought and extreme summer heat are further weakening China’s economy.

NEW –The big tech company Huawei is one of biggest and most important in China. Its leaders are very close to China’s political leaders. Those facts make it astounding to hear what Huawei’s founder told his employees recently. He warned that Huawei and the Chinese economy would have a “very painful” decade and that the company might not even survive. His message leaked and was published widely on social media before the government could shut it down.

NEW – The WSJ reported last week that “China hit an ominous milestone last week as one of the largest property developers reported a 96% profit drop, blaming a “severe depression” in the real estate market where “only the fittest can survive.”

China’s situation looks increasingly like the US did before the Great Recession of 2008-9.

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Prediction #2 — Mainstream American resistance and a counter-revolution against Wokeness, CRT, Cancel Culture, Virtue-signaling, BLM, transgender nonsense, censorship, Defund the Police, etc. are now much stronger than the Woke revolution itself.

Status

Radical Woke Ds continue to lose local elections in areas where they have won for decades. Defund the Police is now Refund the Police even in very liberal cities.

The big test for those who want a “Woke America” is coming on November 8.

And the Supreme Court decision in the West Virginia v. EPA case strongly constrains administrative and executive overreach that will greatly reduce the possibility of Woke nonsense.

A new overly woke and poor-quality Batgirl film was canned by Paramount before even being released.

Conservatives around the country continue to defeat woke liberals in school board elections.

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Prediction #3 — Fall 2021 will be marked as the beginning of the failure and collapse of the Climate Change/Anti-Fossil Fuel movement. Rapid declines in 2022 and 2023 will follow.

UPDATE — Status — Climate change hysteria is now diminishing but still strong in some rich countries and some quarters in the US. But on a worldwide basis it is DEAD. The world has clearly decided that wind and solar are far too expensive and quite unreliable as primary sources of power. If you doubt that note the hard facts below.

FACT – Global coal production is at an all-time record this year and is predicted to go much higher in 2023. It is delusional to think that fossil fuel use is going to fall. A large majority of the world’s countries will substantially increase fossil fuel production and use. There is no way that climate change hysterics can change that.

FACT – The US Supreme Court’s 6 to 3 decision recently makes it essentially impossible for the US to meet the Biden administration’s fossil fuel lowering goals by 2030. The Court ruled that the EPA does not have the power to set nationwide emissions rules, only to set rules for individual plants if they have specific health or safety problems. Congress did not grant the EPA economy-wide control and neither the current Congress nor the next Congress, which will be more conservative, is likely to do so.

FACT – Japan is planning to reopen several large nuclear power plants to assure they have enough electric power this winter. The problem is unreliable wind and solar power and unreliable energy imports from Russia.

FACT – Germany is now actively planning to keep its last three nuclear power plants open. They were to be decommissioned at year end. Germany has wasted trillions on a transition to unreliable wind and solar power. They are paying a huge financial, quality of life, and political price.

FACT – Poorer countries are ignoring their previous commitments to “green” renewables and turning fully back to coal and other cheaper energy sources. Cost is the key. It is now clear that the rich world will never pay the poor world the $1.3 trillion per year demanded of the rich world by the poor world. It will take several more years to see the full effects of the waning of the climate hysteria but there is no doubt reality, facts, and unmanageable costs are destroying most of the movement’s political power.

NEW FACT – Even the rich world is now reneging on their previous promises to reduce CO2 emissions and temporizing on any new commitments. As I predicted, the climate change hysteria is collapsing in the face of economic reality.

The good news is that existential climate change fears were never justified by accurate facts and good science.

FACT — A massive transition to renewables is NOT physically or financially feasible for at least 40-years, if then. There are not enough crucial materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth minerals, and hundreds of other essential components to build the EVs and windmills and solar cells necessary for the transition. And environmentalists in the US and elsewhere are preventing new mines for such essential minerals to be built. The greens are destroying their own fantasy.

FACT — The war and last winter’s energy crisis in Europe have greatly weakened the climate change hysteria in Europe. President Biden’s deal with Europe to replace Russian natural gas with US LNG and the drilling and pipelines needed in the US to meet that promise effectively puts a stake in the heart of the Green New Deal in the US. That is not hyperbole, just a political and economic truth.

FACT – The EU has now endorsed nuclear power as “green” because it is renewable and fossil fuel free. They have also designated natural gas [NG] as green which it is not. But they had no real choice as their economies cannot function without vast quantities of fossil fuels. It is delusional for anyone to think otherwise. This is just another step in the slow realization that fossil fuel use is going to increase, not decrease.

NEW FACT – As a result of the energy crisis across the globe nuclear power is likely to experience a strong revival with old plants staying in operation and new plants being constructed. Good news is also coming later this decade with new safe small nuclear reactors [SNRs] becoming commercially available.

NEW FACT – It is a great irony that the climate change hysterics caused the current worldwide energy crisis and nuclear power will clearly be a major part of the solution.

FACT — Net-zero CO2 emissions is not necessary to achieve, as we innovative humans can use good science and good engineering to solve the problems modest global warming will cause.

If you fear climate change is a serious threat, assuage your fears by reading “Unsettled” by Steven Koonin PhD. Koonin is one of the world’s top scientists. He is a self-declared Democrat and was the Chief Scientist in the Obama-Biden Department of Energy. He was also the President of Caltech. It will cost you just $20 and a day of reading to calm your fears and those of your family.

Tuchfarber Political Psychiatry Tests

  1. Thirty Day Test: When you get upset about something in the news, take several deep breaths and ask if it is likely to matter much in 30 days or so. Only seldom will it be important then. So, ignore it and lower your blood pressure.
  2. Get Accurate Facts Test: Try not to jump to conclusions based on inadequate facts. Do not trust the “facts” or analyses from the mainstream media. The MSM is full of fake news, outright lies, and partisan spin. Some right-leaning media outlets are also full of nonsense.

NOTES

I thought it would be useful to describe my philosophy for the TR and my main methods.

My purpose is NOT to push an agenda but to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions.

I REPORT ACCURATE FACTS, ANALYSES, AND PREDICTIONS EVEN IF I DO PERSONALLY LIKE THEM.

TR Land is not the Land of Chicken Little where the sky is always falling.

It is also not Fantasy Utopia Land where everything is simply fine.

TR Land is a land of accurate researched facts, accurate analyses, and accurate predictions.

Each year I make 60 to 80 predictions at the start of the year. Experts disagree vehemently about the issues I address. From 2017 through 2021 my predictions have been correct 91% of the time.

Al Tuchfarber — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati

I certainly hope Dr. Tuchfarber is correct in his analyses. It would represent a sea change worldwide. – The Liberator

I ask again…What the hell do we owe these people?

Do we owe them our economic survival? Our country’s culture? Our tax dollars? Our educational systems? Our healthcare system? WHAT THE HELL DO WE OWE THEM?? Answer: Not a damn thing.

Go back and fix the problems in YOUR country. That’s what the hell we had to do 200+ years ago to create a country so attractive that you are attempting to enter it illegally. Leave! Go Home! Fix your problems at home!! You will turn America into the very type of country you left! We owe you NOTHING.

– The Liberator